Three regimes
Fixed, floating, managed.
Floating (covered in previous subtopic): market determines rate. Central bank doesn't intervene.
Fixed (pegged) exchange rate. Currency is PEGGED to another currency (or basket) at a set rate. Central bank maintains the peg by:
- Buying/selling foreign reserves.
- Adjusting interest rates.
- Capital controls.
Example: Hong Kong dollar pegged to USD at HK$7.80 since 1983 β operated as a currency board. Saudi riyal pegged to USD. Bulgarian lev pegged to euro.
Devaluation = deliberate downward adjustment of the fixed rate (e.g. UK 1967 devaluation of sterling).
Revaluation = deliberate upward adjustment (rare in practice).
Managed (dirty) float. Currency mostly market-determined BUT central bank intervenes to:
- Prevent excessive volatility.
- Counter speculative attacks.
- Achieve a target range (e.g. China managed renminbi against USD).
- Influence trade competitiveness (sometimes accused of currency manipulation).
Most major currencies β USD, euro, yen, sterling β are TECHNICALLY floating but managed via interest rate policy and occasional intervention.
Advantages of fixed:
- Stability for trade and investment (no currency risk).
- Inflation discipline β can't print money without losing reserves.
- Anchor for expectations β useful for credibility in countries with weak institutions.
- Reduced speculation (in theory).
Disadvantages of fixed:
- No independent monetary policy β interest rates must defend peg, not pursue domestic goals.
- Vulnerable to speculative attacks β if market doubts peg, capital outflows force devaluation (Asian crisis 1997, sterling 1992).
- Builds up imbalances β country can run deficits without exchange rate adjustment.
- Reserves needed β costly to hold large dollar reserves.
Advantages of floating:
- Monetary policy independence.
- Automatic adjustment β deficits β depreciation β recovery.
- No reserve requirement.
Disadvantages of floating:
- Volatility β uncertain for trade and investment.
- Speculative bubbles.
- Pass-through inflation β depreciation raises import prices.
Impossible trinity (Mundell-Fleming). A country can only have TWO of: (1) fixed exchange rate, (2) free capital flows, (3) independent monetary policy. Choose two:
- China historically: fixed + monetary autonomy + capital CONTROLS.
- Hong Kong: fixed + free flows but NO monetary autonomy (rates set in NY).
- USA: free flows + monetary autonomy but FLOATING rate.
This trinity is fundamental to international finance.
- Fixed: pegged; needs reserves + monetary discipline.
- Floating: market-determined; gives monetary autonomy.
- Managed float: most realistic; intervention in practice.
- Impossible trinity: pick 2 of 3.