The decision for armed insurrection
Lenin returned secretly from Finland in early October and pressed for immediate insurrection. The Bolshevik Central Committee voted 10-2 for armed insurrection on 10 October 1917; Kamenev and Zinoviev's public protest alerted the Provisional Government.
Lenin in Finland (July-October 1917). After the July Days, Lenin had been hiding in Finland β first at Razliv (a lakeside hideout near the Finnish border), then crossing to Helsingfors (modern Helsinki) and beyond. From Finland he wrote his major theoretical work 'State and Revolution' (between July and September 1917) β Lenin's vision of the future Bolshevik state, emphasising the dictatorship of the proletariat and the smashing of the bourgeois state.
He also sent increasingly urgent letters to the Bolshevik Central Committee in Petrograd demanding immediate armed insurrection. Through September:
- He argued that the Kornilov Affair had transformed the situation β Bolsheviks now had Red Guards and Soviet majorities.
- He warned that the Provisional Government was preparing to surrender Petrograd to the Germans to avoid a Bolshevik revolution.
- He demanded that the Bolsheviks act before the Constituent Assembly so they could shape events rather than be constrained by them.
- His letters became almost manic in their intensity: 'History will not forgive us if we do not assume power now.'
Some Bolshevik Central Committee members burned Lenin's letters because they thought him too aggressive or too distant from reality.
Lenin's return (early October 1917). By early October, Lenin had decided he must return to Petrograd to press his case in person. He returned secretly in disguise β the exact date is debated but probably 7-9 October (Old Style). He was hidden in safe houses in Petrograd by Bolshevik supporters.
The Central Committee meeting (10 October 1917 OS). The Bolshevik Central Committee held a crucial meeting on the night of 10 October 1917 (Old Style; 23 October New Style) at the apartment of Galina Sukhanova in Petrograd (she was the wife of a Menshevik and the meeting was unauthorised by her husband). Twelve members of the Central Committee attended; Lenin appeared in disguise wearing a wig.
The debate. The meeting lasted ~10 hours. Lenin argued for immediate armed insurrection:
- The political moment was ripe.
- Bolshevik strength was at its peak.
- The Provisional Government was disintegrating.
- Waiting risked losing the opportunity.
- The Constituent Assembly elections would constrain Bolshevik action.
- 'History will not forgive us if we do not assume power now.'
Kamenev and Zinoviev opposed, arguing:
- The Bolsheviks lacked national support (only urban and military).
- The Constituent Assembly might give them a majority anyway.
- Premature insurrection could end in catastrophe.
- Better to wait and consolidate.
Trotsky, Stalin, Sverdlov, Dzerzhinsky, Uritsky and others supported Lenin.
The vote (10-2). After the debate, the Central Committee voted 10-2 for armed insurrection:
- Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Sverdlov, Dzerzhinsky, Uritsky, Bubnov, Kollontai, Lomov, Sokolnikov voted for.
- Kamenev and Zinoviev voted against.
The decision was made. The Bolshevik party was now committed to seizing power. But the timing was left flexible β somewhere in the next few weeks.
The Kamenev-Zinoviev protest (18 October 1917). Kamenev and Zinoviev refused to accept the decision and decided to publicly oppose it. On 18 October 1917 (Old Style; 31 October New Style) they published an open letter in Maxim Gorky's left-wing newspaper Novaya Zhizn opposing armed insurrection as premature and likely to fail.
Lenin was furious. He wrote letters demanding Kamenev and Zinoviev be expelled from the party as 'strike-breakers'. The Bolshevik Central Committee discussed expulsion but ultimately did not act on it. Both men later returned to senior Bolshevik leadership.
The political consequences:
- The protest publicly alerted the Provisional Government that a Bolshevik insurrection was being planned.
- Kerensky was warned but took only limited counter-measures.
- The element of surprise was partly lost β but the political situation by then made counter-measures very difficult.
The Provisional Government's response. Kerensky knew an insurrection was coming. His responses were inadequate:
- He planned to move the Bolshevik-leaning Petrograd garrison out of the city β but the garrison and the Soviet refused.
- He arranged for military Cadets and Cossacks to defend government buildings.
- He tried to suppress Bolshevik newspapers (briefly).
- He considered moving the government to Moscow but did not act.
Kerensky's fundamental problem: he had no military force he could trust. The Petrograd garrison would not obey him; the Cossacks were unreliable; the Cadets and Junkers (officer cadets) were too few. The Provisional Government had lost the ability to defend itself.
The political moment. By mid-October 1917 the political situation favoured insurrection:
- Soviet majorities: Bolsheviks dominated Petrograd, Moscow, and most major city Soviets.
- Red Guards: ~25,000-40,000 armed Bolshevik workers.
- Mass party: ~350,000 Bolshevik members.
- Soldiers' support: Petrograd garrison neutral or sympathetic; Baltic Fleet sailors actively pro-Bolshevik.
- Workers' support: factory committees largely Bolshevik.
- Peasants seizing land: the Bolshevik 'Land' programme already in practice.
- Failed government: Provisional Government discredited, isolated, weak.
Lenin's calculation was that the moment had come. Trotsky would supply the practical organisation.
- Lenin in Finland (July-Oct 1917) wrote 'State and Revolution' + urgent letters demanding insurrection.
- Returned secretly to Petrograd early October (7-9 Oct OS, in disguise/wig); pressed for immediate action.
- Central Committee meeting 10 Oct 1917 (OS) at Sukhanova's apartment: 10-2 vote for armed insurrection β Kamenev and Zinoviev against.
- Kamenev-Zinoviev protest published in Novaya Zhizn 18 October 1917 alerted Provisional Government; Lenin demanded their expulsion (not acted on).
- Kerensky had no reliable military force β Petrograd garrison would not obey; Cossacks unreliable; Cadets/Junkers too few. Lost ability to defend.