The pattern of disruption
New tech displaces old; transition is painful.
Standard pattern:
- Existing industry serves a need at established quality/price.
- New technology enters at lower cost, sometimes lower initial quality.
- Some incumbents adapt; others fail to.
- Incumbents lose share; some collapse.
- New industry matures; quality and reach grow.
- New equilibrium with different winners.
Examples:
- Cinemas vs streaming. Cinemas lost ~50% revenue during COVID; many never recovered. Streaming dominates home entertainment.
- Travel agents. ~80% of UK high-street travel agents closed in the past 15 years. Replaced by Booking.com, Expedia, Airbnb.
- Bank branches. UK banks closed thousands of branches since 2010. Replaced by online and mobile banking.
- Cinema vs streaming, taxis vs Uber, paper journals vs online news.
Painful for affected workers — retraining, geographic dislocation, lower-paid alternatives.