Why is "Mixing up DTM stages" a common mistake in Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change?

Why it happens: Many similar terms. How to avoid it: Stage 1 = high BR + high DR (pre-industrial). Stage 2 = high BR + falling DR (industrial). Stage 3 = falling BR. Stage 4 = both low. Stage 5 = BR below DR. Source: 0460 Examiner Reports 2022-2024

Changing PopulationsCambridge IGCSE Geography (0460)

Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change

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Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change Study Notes — Cambridge IGCSE Geography 0460 (2024-2026 syllabus)

Key demographic terms. The 5-stage Demographic Transition Model. Factors affecting birth rates.

What you’ll learn

Mapped to the Cambridge IGCSE 0460 syllabus (2024-2026).

6.1.1 — Define demographic key terms.
6.1.2 — Describe the 5 DTM stages.
6.1.3 — Identify factors affecting birth rate.

Key demographic terms

Six core terms.

Birth rate = live births per 1,000 population per year.

Death rate = deaths per 1,000 population per year.

Natural increase = BR − DR. Expressed as % growth.

Infant mortality = deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births. Development indicator.

Life expectancy = average years a person can expect to live.

Fertility rate = average children per woman. ~2.1 = replacement level.

Cambridge tip. Memorise all six.

Six terms with precise definitions.
Birth rate − death rate = natural increase.
Infant mortality + life expectancy = development indicators.

See the full worked example for population growth, decline and demographic change →

Demographic Transition Model

5 stages as countries develop.

Stage 1 — High stationary. High BR + high DR. Population stable + low. Pre-industrial. Few examples today.

Stage 2 — Early expanding. High BR + falling DR (better healthcare, sanitation). Population grows fast. Example: Niger, Afghanistan.

Stage 3 — Late expanding. Falling BR (education, contraception); low DR. Growth slowing. Example: India, Indonesia.

Stage 4 — Low stationary. Both BR + DR low. Population stable + high. Example: UK, USA, China.

Stage 5 — Declining. BR below DR. Population SHRINKING. Aging. Example: Japan, Germany, Italy.

Cambridge tip. Cambridge-favourite question. Memorise stages + example countries.

5 stages from pre-industrial to declining.
BR + DR change in predictable patterns.
Example countries for each stage.

See the full worked example for population growth, decline and demographic change →

Factors affecting birth rates

Multiple factors interact.

Education of women. More educated women have fewer children.

Female workforce participation. Working women delay/reduce childbearing.

Contraception access. Available + affordable → lower birth rate.

Religion / culture. Some religions/cultures favour large families.

Government policy. China's one-child policy (1979-2016) cut BR. Iran's pro-natalist policy reverses.

Economic development. As GDP rises, families have fewer children.

Child mortality. Lower → parents have fewer children (don't need spares).

Urbanisation. Urban families typically smaller.

Cambridge tip. Memorise 6+ factors.

Education, workforce, contraception.
Religion, policy, development.
Child mortality, urbanisation also matter.

See the full worked example for population growth, decline and demographic change →

How it’s examined

Demographics appear on every Paper 1. Most-tested: define terms (6 marks), describe DTM (10 marks), birth-rate factors (6 marks).

Sources: Cambridge IGCSE Geography 0460 syllabus (2024-2026); 0460 Examiner Reports 2022-2024; 0460/12 May/Jun 2024 question paper and mark scheme. Last reviewed 2026-05-09.

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Step-by-step worked examples — Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change

Step-by-step solutions to past-paper-style questions on population growth, decline and demographic change, written exactly the way a tutor would explain them at the board.

1Population key terms (6 marks)
Core• Adapted from 0460/12 May/Jun 2024• demography
Question
Define each: (a) birth rate, (b) death rate, (c) natural increase, (d) infant mortality, (e) life expectancy, (f) fertility rate. (6 marks)
Step-by-step solution
1. Step 1
  Birth rate (1 mark). Number of live births per 1,000 people per year.
2. Step 2
  Death rate (1 mark). Number of deaths per 1,000 people per year.
3. Step 3
  Natural increase (1 mark). Birth rate − Death rate. Expressed as % growth.
4. Step 4
  Infant mortality (1 mark). Deaths of children under 1 year, per 1,000 live births.
5. Step 5
  Life expectancy (1 mark). Average number of years a person can expect to live.
6. Step 6
  Fertility rate (1 mark). Average number of children per woman.
Answer
Six key terms — memorise all.
2Demographic Transition Model — 5 stages (10 marks)
Extended• dtm
Question
Describe the FIVE stages of the Demographic Transition Model. State an example country for each. (10 marks)
Step-by-step solution
1. Step 1
  Stage 1 — High stationary (2 marks). Birth rate HIGH; death rate HIGH. Population stable + low. Pre-industrial. Few examples today (very remote tribes).
2. Step 2
  Stage 2 — Early expanding (2 marks). Birth rate HIGH; death rate FALLING (better healthcare, sanitation). Population growing fast. Example: Niger, Afghanistan.
3. Step 3
  Stage 3 — Late expanding (2 marks). Birth rate FALLING (education, contraception); death rate LOW. Population still growing but slowing. Example: India, Indonesia.
4. Step 4
  Stage 4 — Low stationary (2 marks). Both birth and death rates LOW. Population stable + high. Most developed countries. Example: UK, USA, China.
5. Step 5
  Stage 5 — Declining (2 marks). Birth rate BELOW death rate. Population SHRINKING. Aging populations. Example: Japan, Germany, Italy.
Answer
DTM 5 stages: high stationary → early expanding → late expanding → low stationary → declining.
Examiner tip
Cambridge-favourite question. Memorise stages, characteristics, and example countries.
3Factors affecting birth rates (6 marks)
Extended• birth-rate
Question
Identify SIX factors that affect a country's birth rate. (6 marks)
Step-by-step solution
1. Step 1
  Education of women (1 mark). More educated women have FEWER children.
2. Step 2
  Female workforce participation (1 mark). Working women delay/reduce childbearing.
3. Step 3
  Contraception access (1 mark). Available + affordable → lower birth rate.
4. Step 4
  Religion / culture (1 mark). Some religions / cultures encourage large families.
5. Step 5
  Government policy (1 mark). China's one-child policy (1979-2016) cut birth rates. Iran's pro-natalist policy reverses direction.
6. Step 6
  Economic development (1 mark). As GDP/income rises, families have fewer children.
Answer
Education, female workforce, contraception, religion, policy, development. Other: child mortality, urbanisation.

Key Definitions and Keywords — Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change

Definitions to memorise and the exact keywords mark schemes credit for population growth, decline and demographic change answers — sharpened from recent examiner reports for the 2026 0460 sitting.

Birth rate
Examiner keyword
Live births per 1,000 population per year.
Death rate
Examiner keyword
Deaths per 1,000 population per year.
Natural increase
Examiner keyword
Birth rate minus death rate. Expressed as % population growth per year.
Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
Examiner keyword
Five-stage model of how birth and death rates change as a country develops.
Fertility rate
Examiner keyword
Average children per woman over her lifetime. ~2.1 = replacement level.
Infant mortality rate
Examiner keyword
Deaths of children under 1 year per 1,000 live births. Indicator of development.
Life expectancy
Examiner keyword
Average years a person can expect to live. Higher in developed countries.

Common Mistakes and Misconceptions — Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change

The traps other students keep falling into on population growth, decline and demographic change questions — taken from recent Cambridge IGCSE 0460 examiner reports and mark schemes — and how to avoid them.

✕Mixing up DTM stages
0460 Examiner Reports 2022-2024
Why it happens
Many similar terms.
How to avoid it
Stage 1 = high BR + high DR (pre-industrial). Stage 2 = high BR + falling DR (industrial). Stage 3 = falling BR. Stage 4 = both low. Stage 5 = BR below DR.

Practice questions

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Population Growth, Decline and Demographic Change

Short Study Notes in the form of Slides

Detailed Study Notes

What you’ll learn

How it’s examined

1Population key terms (6 marks)

2Demographic Transition Model — 5 stages (10 marks)

3Factors affecting birth rates (6 marks)

Birth rate

Death rate

Natural increase

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Fertility rate

Infant mortality rate

Life expectancy

✕Mixing up DTM stages

Practice questions

Past paper style quiz

Assess your understanding