Yes, on average. Cambridge says a learner in the “Good” Lower Secondary Checkpoint band (21–30 on the 0–50 scale) would expect IGCSE grade C/4 standard, and one in the “Outstanding” band (41–50) would expect A/7. Cambridge research found same-subject correlations of 0.69 to 0.78. That is useful for targets, but more than half the variation is unexplained.
What do Cambridge Checkpoint results mean?
Lower Secondary Checkpoint tests assess learners at the end of Stage 9 in English, English as a Second Language, mathematics and science, and Cambridge marks them. Since the May 2023 series, reports use “a score on a 0 to 50 scale (rather than a score on the legacy 0.0 to 6.0 scale)”, grouped into performance bands (Cambridge FAQ).
| Checkpoint score | Performance band | Cambridge’s expected IGCSE standard |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Unclassified | — |
| 1–10 | Basic | — |
| 11–20 | Aspiring | — |
| 21–30 | Good | Grade C/4 |
| 31–40 | High | — |
| 41–50 | Outstanding | Grade A/7 |
Cambridge gives expected IGCSE standards only for Good and Outstanding. The score is scaled, and Cambridge warns that it “does not represent half of the percentage raw score”. A 30 is not 60%.
Schools receive more than a score. Each learner gets a Statement of Achievement and marks at strand and sub-strand level. The teaching group and school reports show averages, score distributions, five-year trends and an international average for comparison (Cambridge).
Do Checkpoint results predict IGCSE grades?
They predict well on average and less well for individuals. Cambridge’s guidance says that “in general” a Good band leads to C/4 and an Outstanding band to A/7. It calls this “a progression ‘on average’”: “some learners … make more progress than indicated … and some learners … make less progress”.
Cambridge’s own research gives the numbers. Gill (2023) matched 2017 Checkpoint results to the same students’ 2018 and 2019 IGCSE results (Research Matters 36):
| Checkpoint subject | IGCSE subject | Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| English | First Language English | 0.69 |
| English as a Second Language | English as a Second Language | 0.74 |
| Mathematics | Mathematics | 0.75 |
| Science | Biology | 0.78 |
| Science | Chemistry | 0.71 |
| Science | Physics | 0.73 |
Correlations between different subjects were lower, between 0.41 and 0.57. The study concludes that Checkpoint scores “provide useful information on how well students are likely to do in their IGCSEs” for “target setting, streaming, and identifying students who may need extra help”. It also warns that “a correlation of 0.70 means that over 50 per cent of the variation is unaccounted for”. These results predate the 0–50 scale.
How should schools use Checkpoint to set IGCSE targets?
Use the band as a starting point, then adjust with evidence the band cannot see. A four-step method:
- Start from Cambridge’s expectation. Good means C/4; Outstanding means A/7. For High, set a target between the two and document it.
- Use strand marks, not just the total. A learner who is strong in number but weak in algebra needs a different plan from one weak across the board, even with the same score.
- Match subjects closely. Checkpoint Science predicts IGCSE Biology better than it predicts Economics. For subjects with no Checkpoint equivalent, Cambridge notes there is “much more uncertainty”.
- Review after the first IGCSE assessment. Treat the Checkpoint-based target as provisional until a Year 10 assessment confirms or corrects it.
Never publish a Checkpoint-based target to a student as a prediction. It is a statistical expectation for a group of similar students.
Can Checkpoint results show value added?
Partly. Cambridge’s school reports compare a school’s results with an international average and its own five-year trend. Comparing each cohort’s Checkpoint band with its later IGCSE results gives a school a simple value-added measure. The same research found that schools adopting Checkpoint saw their mean IGCSE results rise by about “a quarter of a grade” where students took at least two Checkpoint subjects, though its author urges caution. More guides on progress and value added are collected in the Data, Learning Gaps & School Improvement hub.
When are Checkpoint tests taken?
Three series are available: March, May and October. The March series was added from 2026, alongside fixed test days set by Cambridge. The March 2027 series runs from 22 February to 2 March 2027, with final entries due on 27 November 2026 and diagnostic feedback from 6 May 2027. The IGCSE and A Level mock calendar shows how these fit around IGCSE deadlines.
Schools that do not sit Checkpoint can use Cambridge’s Lower Secondary Progression Tests for stages 7, 8 and 9. Teachers mark them, and the paper versions are included in the programme fee. They report in the same bands, but Cambridge notes there is “no standardisation between schools”.
How schools do this with AI Buddy
AI Buddy picks up where Checkpoint leaves off. Its auto-marked practice across IGCSE subjects shows each student’s topic-level strengths and gaps from the start of Year 10. Heads of department can see early whether a Checkpoint-based target is on track. The cohort analytics then compare progress across classes against the same starting bands.
Frequently asked questions
What does a Checkpoint score mean?
It is a scaled score from 0 to 50, grouped into bands: Basic (1–10), Aspiring (11–20), Good (21–30), High (31–40) and Outstanding (41–50). It is not a percentage.
How does Checkpoint relate to IGCSE?
On average, a Good band leads to IGCSE grade C/4 standard and an Outstanding band to A/7, according to Cambridge. Individual students vary.
When are Cambridge Checkpoint results 2026 released?
Diagnostic feedback follows each series. For the March 2027 series, Cambridge lists 6 May 2027. Check the key dates for your series in Direct.
Is the old 0–6.0 Checkpoint scale still used?
No. Cambridge moved to the 0–50 scale from the May 2023 series.
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Sources
- Cambridge International, Cambridge Checkpoint
- Cambridge International, Progression Tests and Checkpoint performance band FAQs (February 2024)
- Gill, T. (2023), An analysis of the relationship between Secondary Checkpoint and IGCSE results, Research Matters 36, Cambridge University Press & Assessment
- Cambridge International, Key dates for March 2027 Checkpoint test series