An international school should set predicted grades from marked evidence: full mock papers sat under exam conditions, achieved unit results and the trend across assessments. Each prediction should be moderated by the head of department and recorded under one written policy. Cambridge requires forecast grades for every candidate, due by 31 October 2026 for the November series.
Why does an international school need a predicted grades policy?
One prediction now feeds several decisions, and each has different rules. Without a single policy, the UCAS prediction, the Cambridge forecast and the grade a parent hears can all differ for the same student.
| Use | Who sees it | Rule that applies |
|---|---|---|
| UCAS predicted grade | Universities | Must be “based on demonstrable evidence of performance” (UCAS) |
| Cambridge forecast grade | Cambridge International | Required for all candidates; used to “decide syllabus grade thresholds”, adjust marks for special consideration and run checks before results (Cambridge Handbook 2026) |
| Pearson Edexcel | Not collected | Pearson “no longer require[s]” estimated grades (Pearson) |
| Contingency evidence | Exam board examiners | In 2026, Pearson treated predictions as “supporting context rather than as grades to be awarded” |
The last row is the lesson of 2026. When exams were cancelled in parts of the Gulf, boards graded marked work, not predictions. A prediction without scripts behind it carried no weight.
What should a predicted grades policy include?
A workable policy fits on two pages and answers eight questions.
- Scope. Which qualifications it covers: Cambridge IGCSE, O Level, AS & A Level, Pearson Edexcel International GCSE and IAL.
- Evidence standard. The minimum evidence for any prediction. We recommend at least two full-paper assessments under exam conditions.
- Method. How marks become grades (see below).
- Moderation. Who reviews predictions, and when a head of department must sign off a grade above the evidence.
- Independence. Predictions are set without reference to a student’s university choices, as UCAS requires.
- Communication. What students and parents are told, and a clear statement that predictions are not negotiated.
- Records. Where evidence is stored and for how long.
- Deadlines. Internal cut-offs ahead of each UCAS and exam board date.
How do you calculate predicted grades?
Calculate from the most recent full paper, then adjust for the trend, never for effort. Cambridge is explicit that a forecast grade “is not the teacher’s assessment of the quality of the candidate’s work during the course, or of their effort”. It is the grade the teacher expects the candidate to achieve.
A defensible method has four steps:
- Mark each mock to the official mark scheme.
- Convert marks to grades using consistent mock grade boundaries. Our guide to setting grade boundaries for mock exams covers this.
- Compare at least two results. A rising or falling trend of a grade or more should move the prediction; noise within a grade should not.
- Record a one-line rationale wherever the prediction differs from the latest mock grade.
For students who have already sat part of a qualification, such as Cambridge AS Level, the Cambridge forecast “should relate to the overall qualification, including the part already assessed”.
What format should predicted grades take?
Use the grade scale of the exact syllabus entered, recorded per syllabus code, not per subject name. A student entered for Cambridge IGCSE Mathematics 0580 and a student entered for Pearson Edexcel International GCSE Mathematics A 4MA1 are on different grading scales. The evidence record should make that impossible to mix up. A minimal record per student and syllabus holds:
| Field | Example |
|---|---|
| Syllabus and code | Cambridge IGCSE Physics 0625 (Extended) |
| Assessment 1 | November mock, Paper 4, exam conditions, 58/80 |
| Assessment 2 | January mock, Paper 4, exam conditions, 63/80 |
| Mock grades | Converted with the department’s boundaries |
| Teacher prediction | The grade the teacher expects |
| HoD moderation | Agreed, or changed with reason |
| Rationale | One line where the prediction differs from the latest mock |
When are predicted grades due?
Build the internal calendar backwards from these external dates:
| Date | Deadline |
|---|---|
| 15 October 2026 | UCAS: Oxford, Cambridge, most medicine, dentistry and veterinary courses (18:00 UK time) |
| 31 October 2026 | Cambridge forecast grades, November 2026 series |
| 13 January 2027 | UCAS: most undergraduate courses (18:00 UK time) |
| End of April | Cambridge forecast grades, June series (30 April in the 2026 Handbook; confirm in the 2027 Handbook) |
The full UCAS timeline is in our guide to UCAS predicted grades for international schools.
How schools do this with AI Buddy
AI Buddy produces predicted-grade reports from each student’s results on mock exams and practice papers. The papers are drawn from 200,000+ past-paper-style questions and marked instantly, so the evidence record above fills itself as students work. Heads of department see where a teacher’s prediction sits against the student’s measured trend, and can moderate before the October and January deadlines. Teachers still set the grade; AI Buddy supplies the evidence and the audit trail.
Frequently asked questions
How are predicted grades for IGCSE decided?
From at least two full mock papers sat under exam conditions, marked to the official mark scheme and converted to grades with consistent boundaries. The head of department moderates the result.
How are predicted grades for A Level set?
The same way, with any achieved AS or IAL unit results included. Cambridge forecasts must cover the whole qualification, including parts already assessed.
How do you calculate predicted grades?
Start from the most recent full-paper result, adjust for a clear trend across assessments, and record a rationale where the prediction differs from the evidence. Never adjust for effort.
What format should predicted grades be in?
The grade scale of the specific syllabus entered, recorded by syllabus code, with the evidence and moderation decision stored alongside.
Does Pearson Edexcel ask for predicted grades?
No. Pearson says it no longer requires estimated grades. Cambridge does require forecast grades for all candidates.
Discover how AI Buddy helps schools strengthen teaching, learning and evidence-informed school improvement. Or start a short consultation with our schools team using the form below — we will get back to you directly.
Sources
- Cambridge International, Cambridge Handbook 2026, section 4.1 (forecast grades)
- UCAS, Predicted grades: what you need to know
- UCAS, Key dates timeline for advisers
- Pearson, Exams officers: frequently asked questions
- Pearson, Arrangements for International GCSE and International A Level exams (2026)